Introduction

A new Yiaga Africa survey indicates 84 percent of Nigerians express strong intention to participate in the 2027 general elections, representing a notable increase from earlier rounds. Despite this heightened engagement, the report flags ongoing concerns about security, institutional credibility and electoral integrity that could influence actual participation.

What Happened

The third round of Yiaga Africa's National Voting Intentions Survey NVIS 3.0 published in September 2026 interviewed 2470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Voter intention rose from 73 percent in March 2026 to 84 percent in September even as confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission declined to 34 percent down from 45 percent in previous rounds.

Why This Matters

The survey titled Willing but Wary reveals that while Nigerians remain engaged in the electoral process deepening fears about violence and distrust in institutions may prevent votes from being cast. Sixteen percent of respondents identified insecurity as a primary barrier with 61 percent stating fear of violence could stop them from voting. Regional disparities are notable as confidence in INEC is particularly low in the South-East and South-South zones.

Key Takeaways

  • Insecurity tops the list of barriers with 61 percent of respondents fearing violence could prevent them from voting and 83 percent saying improved security would increase their likelihood to participate.
  • Confidence in INEC stands at 34 percent a drop from 45 percent in earlier survey rounds with the lowest trust recorded in the South-East and South-South regions.
  • Forty-nine percent of respondents cited a desire for leadership change as their main motivation to vote while 38 percent prioritized the economy and jobs and 36 percent focused on security.
  • Young voters show weaker voting intentions with only 40 percent of young respondents very likely to vote compared to 64 percent of those aged 61 and above. Young voters also report higher fear of electoral violence and greater reliance on social media for election information.
  • Sixty-three percent of respondents have little or no confidence that the judiciary would resolve electoral disputes fairly rising to 81 percent in the South-South.
  • Awareness of electoral reforms increased from 24 percent in December 2025 to 62 percent in the latest survey indicating growing civic engagement.

Conclusion

Yiaga Africa emphasizes that Nigeria voter apathy is better framed as a conversion problem not an apathy problem urging the Federal Government security agencies INEC and the judiciary to address structural barriers before the January 2027 presidential election. The organization calls for a national election security plan real-time result uploads to the IReV portal pre-election dispute resolution and strict adherence to the Peace Accord and anti-vote-buying pledges by all political actors.