Introduction

Nigeria's petroleum import profile shifted significantly in August 2026, with daily petrol deliveries dropping 26% to 14.6 million litres, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. The decline reflects a broader trend toward domestic refining as the Dangote Refinery scales up output.

What Happened

Data from the NMDPRA August 2026 factsheet shows that average daily petrol imports decreased from 19.7 million litres in July to 14.6 million litres in August. Diesel imports fell even more sharply, from 7.9 million to 1.3 million litres per day. Meanwhile, LPG imports rose to 1.3 million litres per day, up from 0.9 million in the previous month. The authority's monthly tracker covers production, imports, domestic receipts, exports and inventories for key petroleum products.

The Dangote Refinery operated at 105.21% average capacity utilisation in August, producing 41.94 million litres of petrol, 18.01 million litres of diesel and 24.48 million litres of aviation fuel daily. Three major government-owned refineries Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna recorded no production during the month. Among modular operators, WalterSmith achieved 64.77% utilisation, Edo Refinery 90.43%, Aradel Refinery 58.77% and OPAC 16.97%, contributing modest volumes of diesel and other products to the market.

Why This Matters

The steep drop in petrol and diesel import volumes signals a potential turning point for Nigeria's fuel security and foreign exchange outlook. A 989.4% quarter-on-quarter surge in the petrol import bill to N952.15 billion in Q2 2026, from N87.40 billion in Q1, underscores the cost burden of previous reliance on foreign supply. Increased domestic refining reduces exposure to global price swings and foreign exchange volatility. The rise in LPG imports alongside falling petrol demand may also reflect changing consumer patterns and energy transition pressures.

Key Takeaways

  • Petrol imports declined 26% year-on-month in August, reaching the lowest monthly figure in several months.
  • Dangote Refinery now supplies over 35 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market, with exports accounting for 9.73 million litres.
  • Diesel import volumes collapsed 84%, indicating strong local refinery performance and reduced foreign dependency.
  • Modular refineries operated at varying capacities, with WalterSmith, Edo and Aradel all running below 70% utilisation.
  • NMDPRA monthly factsheets provide the most comprehensive snapshot of Nigeria's midstream sector trends and policy impacts.
  • Continued growth in domestic production capacity is key to stabilizing fuel prices and reducing import dependency over the medium term.

Conclusion

August 2026 data marks a clear pivot point as Nigeria leans more on domestic refining to meet fuel demand. Sustained growth in Dangote Refinery output and modular sector expansion could further erode import needs in coming months. Stakeholders should monitor NMDPRA monthly releases for early signals of supply shifts and the impact of evolving energy policies.