Introduction

Nigeria's external finances gained significant momentum in Q3 2026, with the Financial Markets Dealers Association projecting a current account surplus of $8.69 billion, driven by robust oil earnings and tighter import flows. The figure marks the latest step in a steady quarter-over-quarter improvement that has seen the surplus more than sixfold since late 2025.

What Happened

FMDA's September 2026 Monthly Market Report places the Q3 2026 current account surplus at $8.69 billion, up from $7.54 billion in Q2 and well above the earlier forecast of $6.12 billion. The improvement follows a consistent upward trajectory from $1.40 billion in Q4 2025 to $4.98 billion in Q1 2026, then $7.54 billion in the second quarter. Supporting the headline number, the trade balance expanded to $9.22 billion in Q2 from $5.45 billion in Q1, while remittances edged up to $5.49 billion. External reserves also climbed to $54.92 billion by end-September, buoyed by higher oil receipts and a stronger naira.

Why This Matters

The projected surplus signals a reinforcing cycle of higher oil prices, reduced import spending, and improved external credibility. Gross external reserves rose $1.11 billion to $54.92 billion, while the naira appreciated 1.93% on the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and 0.28% officially during September. Brent crude averaged $99.95 per barrel, up 14.43% month-on-month, though EIA expects it to moderate toward $90 in late 2026. The report also notes that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO's direct FX impact remains limited until full allotment, and that the Monetary Policy Committee's 350-basis-point rate cut to 23% may ease liquidity conditions, though FMDA projects a 14.82% decline in system liquidity to N13.25 trillion by October.

Key Takeaways

  • Nigeria's current account surplus is on track to exceed $8 billion in Q3 2026, underpinned by stronger oil revenue and lower import demand.
  • External reserves surpassed $54 billion, and the naira showed measurable appreciation across both official and parallel segments.
  • Trade balance and remittances both improved quarter-over-quarter, reinforcing the external position.
  • Significant FX liquidity conversion from major events like the Dangote IPO is still pending, and upcoming moderation in oil prices could influence the sustainability of the surplus trend.

Conclusion

As official Q3 data remains pending, FMDA's $8.69 billion projection provides a crucial benchmark for tracking Nigeria's external sector health. The combination of higher oil earnings, tighter imports, and rising reserves paints a picture of strengthening macro fundamentals, though stakeholders should monitor oil price trajectories and the timing of large-scale FX conversions to gauge whether the momentum can persist through the rest of 2026.