Introduction

The Director-General of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission, Dr. Emomotimi Agama, has warned that a persistent shortage of credible issuers in the country's capital market may inflate the prices of existing assets rather than foster genuine development. Speaking at the University of Ibadan Alumni Association's 2026 Annual Public Service Lecture, Agama highlighted a fundamental imbalance: attracting more investors without a proportional increase in trustworthy institutions could distort valuations and undermine long-term growth.

What Happened

At the themed lecture First and Best - But Whose Capital Built It? Rethinking How Nigeria Funds Its Own Future, Agama outlined the capital market's rapid expansion targets, including a goal of 30 million investors by 2030 and market size growth from roughly N250 trillion to N750 trillion. He noted that while transaction efficiency has improved with the recent transition to a T+1 securities settlement cycle, these gains risk being offset if the pool of credible issuers does not expand in tandem. The SEC DG also pointed to the impending Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO, valued at approximately N2.15 trillion, as a significant step toward broadening the supply of investable assets, though he stressed such offerings must be backed by strong governance and transparent financial records.

Why This Matters

Agama's central argument is that a deep market with too few credible issuers simply bids up the price of limited assets, creating inflation disguised as growth. He emphasized that the true constraint on Nigeria's capital market is not the number of investors, but the availability of institutions disciplined enough to be rated, transparent enough to be examined, and governed well enough to keep promises over extended periods. With retail participation expanding at an unprecedented pace and initiatives like the National Savings Scheme and Capital Market Master Plan 2.0 underway, the focus must shift toward increasing the supply of trustworthy investment opportunities to ensure sustainable development rather than artificial price inflation.

Key Takeaways

  • SEC DG Dr. Emomotimi Agama warns that issuer shortages could inflate asset prices rather than support real market development.
  • The capital market is targeting 30 million investors by 2030, requiring a proportional increase in credible issuers.
  • Recent reforms, including the T+1 securities settlement cycle, aim to improve transaction efficiency and reduce counterparty risks.
  • The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO, valued at N2.15 trillion, exemplifies efforts to expand the pool of investable assets alongside growing retail participation.
  • Structural challenges remain: the binding constraint is the number of institutions that are sufficiently disciplined, transparent, and well-governed to sustain long-term investment.
  • Upcoming initiatives such as Capital Market Master Plan 2.0 and a National Savings Scheme are designed to boost domestic savings and broaden market access across income groups.

Conclusion

The path forward for Nigeria's capital market depends on balancing investor inflows with a simultaneous rise in credible, well-governed issuers. Without that balance, market expansion risks becoming a vehicle for asset price inflation rather than genuine economic development. Regulatory efforts, improved corporate governance, and increased domestic savings will be essential to ensure that market growth translates into sustainable, widespread economic benefit.