Introduction

The artificial intelligence boom that has propped up U.S. economic growth for over a year is showing signs of peaking, according to top economists at Goldman Sachs and Apollo. As AI investment slows as a share of GDP and benefits remain concentrated in Big Tech, the broader corporate landscape faces a new reality of limited returns and mounting costs.

What Happened

Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius warned that the AI-driven growth impulse is set to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, even before sustainability concerns intensified. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok argued that beyond the tech sector, AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America. While AI investment continues to rise, its contribution to GDP growth is expected to fade, weighed down by rising energy costs, higher interest rates, and the expiration of bonus depreciation incentives. The AI wealth effect that briefly boosted consumer spending is also projected to diminish.

Why This Matters

With AI benefits concentrated among the Magnificent Seven and profit margins flat for the rest of the S&P 500, mainstream businesses are increasingly viewing AI spending as a cost center rather than a growth engine. Slok noted that without a broader revenue impact, companies are pulling back. The ripple effects extend to labor markets, where AI adoption correlates with shifting employment patterns, and to consumers, whose spending boost depends on continued AI stock performance. For the wider economy, the stakes are whether cheaper intelligence can translate into real-world productivity and profit gains beyond the tech sector.

Key Takeaways

  • AI's economic impulse is expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027
  • Payoff remains concentrated in Big Tech, with zero measurable benefit outside the sector
  • Rising energy rates, higher interest rates, and fading fiscal stimulus create headwinds
  • Corporate America is shifting view of AI from growth driver to cost center
  • Labor market impacts are emerging, with AI adoption correlating with employment shifts
  • The AI wealth effect on consumer spending is projected to gradually fade

Conclusion

As the initial euphoria around AI's economic impact fades, the focus shifts to whether mainstream companies can convert cheaper intelligence into tangible revenue and margin growth. Economists remain divided: Goldman sees a longer-term payoff tied to labor disruption, while Slok cautions that judgment, not just computation, drives real business value. For investors and policymakers, the coming months will reveal whether AI's momentum can sustain broader growth or whether the boom is already losing steam.