Introduction

Akin Osuntokun, a prominent political analyst and former advisor to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, has sparked discussion by asserting that President Bola Tinubu retains unexpected strength in Nigeria's Northern region ahead of the 2027 general election. Despite widespread economic hardship, security challenges, and forecasts of waning support, Osuntokun's analysis suggests the political landscape may be more favorable for the incumbent than critics assume.

What Happened

During a Monday interview on Arise News, Osuntokun reviewed regional voting patterns and stated that Tinubu appears competitive across several northern states. He noted the president is likely to sleep well tonight based on the electoral map, arguing that the level of support defies the totalitarian disavowal Tinubu has faced. Osuntokun specifically highlighted Borno, Kwara, and Kogi as states where Tinubu is trending as a winner, while describing the race as competitive in roughly nine to twelve other northern states.

Why This Matters

The analysis carries weight because it comes from a seasoned observer with direct ties to Nigeria's political establishment. If Tinubu maintains or expands this northern footprint, it could significantly alter the 2027 electoral calculus, especially given the region's large vote count. Osuntokun's remarks also suggest that grassroots loyalty may outweigh institutional shifts, as seen in the impact of Governor Abba Yusuf's defection to the APC and its effect on Kwankwaso's support base.

Key Takeaways

  • Tinubu remains competitive in the North despite economic hardship and insecurity.
  • Borno, Kwara, and Kogi show strong trends for the president.
  • Nine to twelve additional northern states are within reach.
  • Grassroots voter loyalty often overrides gubernatorial influence.
  • The 2027 race may depend heavily on northern voter behavior.

Conclusion

Osuntokun's assessment challenges the dominant narrative of declining northern support for Tinubu. As the 2027 election approaches, the northern states he highlighted will likely become focal points for both campaigns and analysts. Whether this competitive edge translates into actual votes will depend on how economic and security conditions evolve, but the signals suggest the president's northern prospects are more resilient than many critics assume.