Introduction

The Central Bank of Nigeria's latest inflation expectations survey reveals that 77.2% of Nigerian households perceived prices as high in September 2026, marking a significant increase from 67.2% in the previous month. This jump underscores the sustained squeeze on household budgets as inflation remains a dominant concern across the economy.

What Happened

According to the CBN's Inflation Perception Index, the score rose to 43.1 points in September from 39.6 in August, reflecting heightened awareness of price increases. The survey found that 77.2% of household respondents viewed inflation as high, up from 67.2% in August, while business perceptions rose modestly to 62.6% from 61.8%. Rural households recorded a perception rate of 79.1%, compared to 76.2% in urban areas. Income-level disparities were also evident, with households earning below N70,000 reporting the highest perception at 80.0%, while those in the N350,000 to N400,000 bracket recorded the lowest at 59.1%.

Why This Matters

The survey highlights how inflation continues to shape economic decisions for both families and businesses. Respondents identified energy costs, exchange rate fluctuations, interest rates, and insecurity as major drivers of inflation concerns. Among business sizes, micro enterprises reported the highest perception at 67.3%, followed by medium-sized businesses at 62.4%, while large and small businesses each registered 59.4%. The data also shows that 62.3% of firms reported increased expenditure due to inflation, compared to 58.8% of households, indicating that businesses feel the cost pressure slightly more acutely.

Key Takeaways

  • 77.2% of Nigerian households perceived inflation as high in September 2026, up from 67.2% in August.
  • The Inflation Perception Index climbed to 43.1 points from 39.6, signaling sustained concern.
  • Rural households experienced higher inflation perception (79.1%) than urban households (76.2%).
  • Households earning below N70,000 recorded the highest perception at 80.0%, while those earning above N350,000 to N400,000 recorded the lowest at 59.1%.
  • Respondents anticipate a gradual easing of inflation over the next three and six months, with 29.5% of households and 26.9% of businesses expecting moderation over the longer term.
  • The Inflation Expectations Index stood at 25.1 points, notably lower than the Perception Index, suggesting improved forward-looking sentiment.

Conclusion

The CBN's latest survey reveals that inflation remains a deeply felt challenge for Nigerian households, particularly those in lower income brackets and rural areas. While expectations point toward a gradual moderation in the coming months, the current data emphasizes the need for continued policy attention and targeted support to alleviate cost-of-living pressures. Monitoring these trends will be crucial for stakeholders navigating Nigeria's evolving economic landscape.